For the first time in years I have actually seen a significant number of the nominated movies, instead of renting them after they’ve won. So I’m going to make some predicitions and name who I think should win Best Picture…. though I’ve only seen half of the nominees so I’m not sure how valid that is!

First off, I have not seen “The Kids Are All Right”, “Winter’s Bone”, “The Fighter” or “127 Hours”.  So I’m pretending they have not shot of winning. “Toy Story 3” should just not be acknowledged.

So we have…..

“True Grit”- It was really well done and a very solid movie but I think its been overshadowed by a lot of the other films this year. Hailee Steinfeld has been getting most of the press but not sure this can hold up to win.

“Black Swan”- Natalie Portman will definitely win but I’m not sure the movie i itself can. First off, there are a lot of horror/suspense elements to it that don’t really make it jump out as Academy winner. Second, the movie has a lot of moments that are a little cheesy (artwork jumping out of walls) and I think the acting was better than the movie itself.  Third, I know 2 people who have fainted/nearly fainted in the movie. Odds of Academy members all remaining upright during the screening? Slim.

“Inception”- I loved it but I know of many who were infuriated by it. I think too many people thought it was pointless or hated the umbiquity of the ending for this to really win.

“The King’s Speech”- A clear favorite and although I loved this movie it may be too traditional. I read an article which described why “The Social Network” should win and it won me over. It pointed out that although “The King’s Speech” is well made, it isn’t breaking any new ground. Looking at the more recent winners like “The Hurt Locker” and “Slumdog Millionaire”, the traditional movies aren’t really getting the awards.

So I’m going with “The Social Network”. Aaron Sorkin wrote it and he is a genius. It won the Golden Globe. It took a very non-narrative book and turned it into a gripping story. Which says a lot considering we knew the outcome and the outcome is not that thrilling. We’re talking abut a website. There was a lawsuit from rich guys suing another rich guy and really, we didn’t care that much when it happened. But the movie made us care and captured our particular time period in a way not a lot of movies have successfully done.

Now we’ll see how far off I am. Watch “Toy Story 3” win.


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